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Bank of Japan Surprise Move

Thoughts on today’s Bank of Japan action and Global Equity Markets The Bank of Japan surprised markets overnight by becoming the most recent central bank to move rates into negative territory, albeit only on new excess reserves created by additional QE, and this time with a razor thin 5-4 vote. This comes on the heels of continued weak economic data, and again (their 3rd time in a year) they postponed the deadline for achieving their 2% inflation target an additional 6 months to early 2017. The Yen weakened dramatically (~2%) overnight as the market was surprised by this seemingly aggressive action in light of recent commentary that additional easing wasn’t necessary.

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NFA Elections – Position Paper

It is time for another NFA Board of Directors election. If it seems like we just asked you for your
vote, it’s because we did as you elected us to two-year terms less than a year ago. However, due to
changes to the Board’s composition, we currently find ourselves up for election yet again in the only
two contested races on the whole Board. We know that the constant stream of elections may seem
unimportant, but as someone who makes their living subject to ever-increasing regulation, taking the
time to vote for effective Board representation directly benefits your business.
One of the unique things about NFA is that it is chartered as a democratic, Member-run self-regulatory
organization. This carries with it substantial responsibilities for both Members and Management to
balance maintaining the rights of Members with protecting customers and avoiding regulatory capture
whereby the organization could be run for the benefit of a select few. For the organization to be
successful, Members need to take an active role in its governance, by educating themselves on often
complex regulatory issues, speaking out on proposed regulations, and electing Directors who put those
goals above their own personal benefit. We think that we have done the latter to the best of our
abilities and would be honored to continue serving you on the Board.

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The “New” IASG

For the past several months, IASG has been in the process of updating the aesthetics of our site. To do this properly, we conducted an IASG user questionnaire to get a better sense of what users liked, disliked, and wanted to see more of…For the most part, feedback was incredibly good. Users loved the functionality […]

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IASG May 2015 Performance Results

We have now reached the end of June 2015 and have compiled nearly 100% of the manager data for May 2014.  With five months of performance on record, the IASG CTA Index has turned negative YTD (Past Performance not indicative of future results).  We anticipate this trend to hold for the remainder of the month as investors […]

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Nat Gas: Summer Weather and Hurricane Season Begins

Written by:  Bryen Deutsch The time has come for natural gas traders to refocus on US weather outlooks.  June 1st marks the official start of hurricane season.  While we did see an early season storm on the Atlantic seaboard a few weeks ago, the bulk of cyclone activity occurs during the next 6 months.    The […]

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Are You Interested in Becoming a Commodity Trading Advisor?

Services for CTAs Grow Your Business With Us You’re busy honing and perfecting your trades and strategies; you don’t have a lot of time for client acquisition or back office management. IASG can help. List your programs FREE on IASG.com and you’ll be introducing yourself to thousands of potential new customers and partnering with an […]

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Start of Something Bigger in the S&P 500?

S&P Index futures fell by 1.11% today currently trading at 2105.50 lower by 19.00 points for the session, hitting a fresh 7 day low.  The main talk amongst the trade were concerns about Greece and some positive economic data which again fueled expectations that a U.S. rate hike is coming sooner than later.  How many times […]

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Oil’s Inside Week Suggests Imminent Breakout/Breakdown

Written by:  Bryen Deutsch Last week both WTI crude and ICE Brent crude traded within the previous week’s range.  This inside week was choppy and fairly uneventful as a second consecutive inventory draw reported by the EIA failed to drive the market to new highs. The chop fest continued Monday as the market closed slightly lower […]

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CTA Spotlight: Sagat Capital

Below is an excerpt from a recent interview with Sagat Capital. You can read it in its entirety at their CTA profile by clicking the Due Diligence link in the sidebar and completing the download request form. Market Philosophy and Trading Method IASG: What is your core belief about the markets? What have you learned about […]

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Kottke Commodities – Soybean Demand, not Farmer Holding, Generated Rally

Those of a certain age will remember the “gas crisis” of the 1970’s, when prices at the pump shot to record highs felt keenly in the economy and individual households. Subsequent statistics revealed no decline in imports, domestic production, or refinery run times, i.e., no supply reduction had occurred. It was demand that went wild, touched off by panic over statements out of would-be monopolist OPEC. A substantial percentage of motorists simultaneously acted to keep tanks topped up as security, abruptly increasing purchases to a record peak that could not be met. What seemed prosaic to individuals purchasing an additional five gallons per week was collectively a sudden, vast increase in demand far out of proportion to actual miles driven. Gas lines extended for blocks and media coverage fed the impression of a crisis which drove more to the pumps. Congressmen were quick to decry oil-company gouging, point fingers at speculators, and convene official investigations thereto.

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Kottke Associates – Conventional Wisdom of Supply Bearishness Upended

This fall – the initial quarter of the 2014-15 crop year – has seen more extraordinary and “record” supply/demand events in more separate categories than any such period in memory. Soybeans left over from the previous year’s crop had dwindled to the tightest availability ever relative to pace of usage, followed by the largest soybean and corn crops in history, generating export business in the largest volume of soybean-equivalent (i.e., including soymeal) in history, resulting in the largest U.S. soybean export-loading week in history – to name just a few.

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2014 NIBA Chicago Conference

NIBA holds three membership meetings per year – Chicago in September is the largest of the three. NIBA Chicago is a full-day conference, presented at two iconic financial institutions — the Chicago Board of Trade building and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange building. NIBA’s fall membership meeting in scheduled for September 22, 2014 in Chicago, IL. […]

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Focusing on Short-Term Performance can be Dangerous

Placing undue focus on short term performance is a very slippery slope – it can be hazardous to one’s trading health. A seemingly ‘anomalous’ bad (or good) month may cause a manager to try to avoid (or replicate) his actions in that particular month going forward, when in reality, this ‘anomaly’ may have been nothing more than typical short term randomness. Yet by changing his actions the manager may lose some of his inherent ‘market edge’. It is not only dangerous to managers and the psychology they take into trading, but it is also dangerous to investors.

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